Fact vs. Fiction: Checking My Shatterpoint Assumptions

When I first started writing about Shatterpoint, it was mostly for myself. When the game was fresh and new, writing my thoughts down helped me process my ideas. At that point, why not also just share my thoughts with everyone? And it’s not like that isn’t still the case sometimes; my Do More Stuff article was actually a big part of what made me go back and give Han more reps and, eventually, pick him for my worlds list. Today, though, we’re going to be extra self-indulgent! Over time, my gameplay experience has led me to a few assumptions that I’d like to think are well-founded, but I actually haven’t fully checked the numbers. It’s now time to put them to the test! Some of these will be broader meta questions, some will be more about specific units, but I’ve tried to chosen a variety of assumptions and hope that the analysis can be at least somewhat helpful to more people than just me.

Assumption: Expertise creep is real

This is something I mentioned somewhat off-handedly in my tier list article last year: it feels like expertise is getting better. Specifically, units seem to get two strikes or two blocks from expertise earlier than before. For example, let’s consider the recently released Delta Squad box. If we consider strikes, crits, and block-to-fail as “things” then seven of their eight offensive expertise charts get two things on one expertise. Defensively, if we consider blocks, hit-to-fail, and crit-to-fail as “things” then Boss gets two things on one defensive expertise in each stance, Fixer two things on two, and Sev & Scorch two things on three. Similarly, seven of eight offensive expertise charts in Riff’s Terror From Below box get two things on just one offensive expertise. Defensively the box is worse, however.

Going through all 179 stances in the game currently, I marked down how many expertise were needed to get two things at range (if applicable), in melee, and in defense. In the chart below I plot a rolling average against the release date. For example, the values on July 7, 2024 would be an average of all units released up to and including that date. For simplicity, units that were adjusted more than simply eras (so most of the May update units) were removed from the analysis. Also, for a chart that never reaches two things (such as Rebel Commando defense) I put a value of 6.

Let’s start with offensive expertise – I was right! Offensive expertise is better than ever before and has been steadily trending that way for over a year.

Defensively, I was initially a bit surprised. Since the start of the game, defensive expertise has actually gotten worse. However, upon further reflection this sort of makes sense. Wave 1 actually had a lot of units that got two defensive things very early. The core set was mostly Mandalorians and force users. The other day 1 drops included General Kenobi, Dooku, Jango, and MagnaGuards (though the latter two aren’t technically shown in this average).

Since defensive expertise starts relatively good, it trends worse for a while as we get more releases (lots of clones, Ewoks, etc.) until we reach the Hondo-Hunter line (discussed in the tier list article, this is the sharp increase in perceived unit quality we see in April 2024 starting with the release of the Bad Batch). So, in my defense (pun intended), it feels like defensive expertise is getting better because it sort of is, though it hasn’t reached start-of-game levels on average. Perhaps I could also argue that defensive expertise is getting more stuff like movement, healing, etc. which wasn’t accounted for in this exercise, but then we’re back in assumption territory.

Verdict: Offensive expertise creep is definitely a thing, but defensive expertise is actually worse overall now than when the game released.

Assumption: All the Way should be Cassian’s default defensive stance

Like many people, I have been playing a bunch of Cassian recently. At first I tried to end my turns in Light it Up for that spicy crit mitigation. However, in most circumstances I found that turning off a crit was just as effective as another block would have been. As such, I started finishing in All the Way instead to access the heal.

To test this, I used the simulator with a few different ranged attackers against Cassian. The results are summarized in the table below.

As expected, fewer successes get through on average for Light it Up than for All the Way. However, considering most boxes on combat trees have two icons, I value a heal as about 0.5 blocks. Cassian should get at least one expertise 87% of the time so maybe we say the healing is worth 0.43 blocks. Now All the Way is looking better than Light it Up except for Jango’s attack. This makes sense since Jango shoots a small, crit-heavy dice pool. You definitely needs some situational awareness for the stance selection – if Cassian is near a bunch of small, crit heavy dice pools, then Light it Up is probably the move, but I feel justified that All the Way should be his default. Taking the defensive expertise with more icons feeds into my revolutionary philosophy of “do more stuff.”

One more big caveat, though: even though I kind of treat a heal like 0.5 blocks, it won’t help if you get wounded or shoved off an objective. So, yeah, that’s definitely a consideration.

Verdict: I’ll say I was correct on this one, though really it’s mostly context and preference dependant 

Assumption: Dark Troopers are still very tanky

After the May updates, I saw a decent amount of negativity about Dark Troopers. “They aren’t good anymore!” or “They should still be 8 health!” or “Matt you are so smart and sexy!” To be clear, those aren’t exact quotes, but I think I captured the vibes faithfully. I thought that was silly then, and after playing quite a bit with new Dark Troopers I still think it’s pretty silly. One thing that I think is often overlooked is pin immunity. Lots of good supports have pins early in their tree these days, so avoiding that on the double tap saves one damage.

To put this assumption to the test, I decided to pit Dark Troopers against some other decent defensive profiles: Fifth Brother (with Protection), 212^th clones (with a hunker and terrain cover), and MagnaGuards. I also included old Dark Troopers as a point of comparison. All attacks were considered to be ranged attacks and I tried to have a mix of different profiles; two of the attackers have early pins, two have no pins. The table below summarizes the defenders’ chances to be wounded after two attacks from each support.

So, are Dark Troopers stellar in this comparison? Not really. In some scenarios there are better, in some they are worse, which leaves them pretty much middle of the pack overall. However, it’s important to remember that this is a comparison against other good defensive profiles. Being average in this comparison still puts Dark Troopers solidly above average in durability (while still having many other great qualities, of course). It’s also worth noting that Dark Trooper defense is less conditional than some of these other defenders. Fifth Brother won’t always have Protection, 212^th won’t always have a hunker or terrain cover. When it comes to one-shot odds, Dark Troopers will act more like a standard 8 health unit, but against multiple attacks then Protection and even pin immunity will have great value.

Now, while Dark Troopers are currently perfectly good defensively, there is no denying they are worse than before. Old Dark Troopers are far and away the best performers in these simulations. So while I’d argue Dark Troopers are absolutely fine now, I recognize that they’ll definitely feel squishier than before.

Verdict: Dark Troopers are no longer absolutely top-tier for defensiveness, but they are still very tanky

Assumption: Shatterpoint is much more or a range-based game than when it started

When Shatterpoint first released, most of the early primaries were melee focused. Darth Vader, Jedi Hunter was also a big part of the meta, and he of course wanted his friends to be attacking in melee. As someone who played a lot of General Kenobi back then, it definitely felt like hunkers wouldn’t stick without him since units were so often engaged. Back when I was trying some Obi-Wan lists as Iden counters (unsurprisingly, it didn’t go great but probably better than you’d think) I definitely had a moment of “oh wow, against all of these guns it’s really nice to be getting a bunch of extra defense dice.”

New objectives like Never Tell Me the Odds and First Contact are quite spread out, making ranged attacks feel even more important. Furthermore, having the option to make ranged attacks is obviously better than not having a ranged attack at all. So, relatively speaking, are there actually more units that prefer ranged attacks these days, or are they just overrepresented in the meta?

This test is a bit subjective. I went through every unit in the game and assigned a preference of Range, Melee, or Either. Either could take a couple forms, someone like Rex is clearly just as happy to attack in both in his one stance, whereas someone like Moff Gideon might have one stance that’s more about range and another that’s more about melee. One example of why I chose to categorize units rather than stances is Kanan Jarrus. One of Kanan’s stances is melee only, but his other is range-focus, and he’s almost always using the latter. If I gave each stance equal weight would hide the fact that, in my opinion, he definitely prefers range.

The chart below shows a breakdown of preferred range over time. As expected, the game started very melee-focused with about two thirds of units preferring melee. Over time it’s become more balanced and stabilized around 40% Range, 40% Melee, and 20% Either. That seems like a great mix to me!

As I touched on above, meta will have a big impact on how we perceive things. In one sense looking at all released units isn’t super useful if many of them aren’t seeing play. Luckily, in a post-update world, I’d say most of the units released have a case to be on the tabletop and in decently competitive lists. Still, it is cool to visualize how the unit mix has shifted to something more balanced, rather than a melee-heavy focus.

Verdict: The shift towards more range is definitely not just a function of the meta, a lower proportion of the released units are melee-focused now

Assumption: Boss isn’t a killer on the same level as Iden

I have many scars from Iden, particularly her penchant for one-shotting a supporting unit in my deployment zone near the start of the game. That play also didn’t usually involve the extra hit from Hask, so Iden can still do it just as effectively as before May. Boss is fantastic and brings a lot of useful things the table, but my impressions thus far are that he isn’t the same type of killer. Is this true though? I don’t use Delta, Give Me an Explosive Solution offensively as much as I perhaps should, so maybe with that he can be just as killy.

Both of these characters have a few different configurations depending on circumstances. Does Iden pay for Covert Operations? Probably. What about the expose? Maybe. How many extra dice does Boss get? This will depend on how much damage he has taken and how well Delta are positioned for Fixer to add dice. In the interest of thoroughness, I have included multiple scenarios. The example defender was MagnaGuards to give a bit of a more sturdy, but not unusual, defensive profile. The results are summarized in the table below. Boss is using the stance Wet Work and Iden is using Burst Fire.

I have included chances for 6+ damage and 8+ damage because many supports sit at 8 damage. Remember, this was all inspired by remembering my supports getting nuked! If Boss can get 6 damage then he can find an explosive solution for the last two. I think of Iden with 9 dice and no expose as her default. It costs one force and gives good firepower without having to close to range 3. To get 6+ damage as often as Iden is getting 8+ Boss is needing +2 dice, which isn’t crazy but needs a little setup. Even then, though, he still needs to pull off an explosive solution. That’s a flexible ability, but it still isn’t always going to be an option. The defender may also be able to heal a damage before Boss can finish them off, potentially avoiding a wound.

If we’re thinking about the initial deep-strike scenario where someone comes and one-shots a unit in your deployment zone, Iden is clearly better. However, Boss can easily get a bunch of extra dice as the game goes on. At his ceiling he’s still an exceptional wound machine, but there is some assembly required. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, but often more setup = less reliable, and reliability is important in a game where every activation is so important.

Verdict: Iden’s killing power starts very high whereas Boss takes a bit more setup. He usually needs more force on hand but can also refresh it. Overall they are similar, but I’d give the edge to Iden.

Assumption: Riff’s extra attacks aren’t much more effective than Snips or Rex

I’ll be honest here, I’m not sure how much I really believe this, but I wanted some Separatist representation and I figured doing some math on Riff attacks would be interesting. Clearly his ability to turn 5 dice attacks into 6 or 7 dice is very spicy, but how does he compare with two of my favourite units, Rex and Padawan Ahsoka Tano (Snips)?

The table below summarizes a bunch of different attack scenarios. I chose both Stormtrooper Sergeant and MagnaGuards as example defenders for a bit of variety. The chance to get one shove is also included because that’s often the most important part of the attack. Rex and Snips can both shove with only one success whereas Riff needs two or three depending on his stance.

Even at five dice, Riff is getting more results through on average than Rex or Snips. However, if what you really want is a shove, then Riff really needs to have extra dice (and be in his Cruelty stance) to compare favourably. In Savagery, once you get to the shove you’ve already dealt 5 damage to the defender, so perhaps they’re wounded anyway. Perhaps the main takeaway here, for me at least, is that Riff needs a mindset change: he’s all about killing, which is less true for Rex and Snips. Not to stereotype, but this seems reasonable for a shark-person.

One other note here is that B1s can often help to leave the target exposed prior to Riff making his attack. I didn’t run the numbers here, but obviously that will make Riff’s attack even more effective.

Verdict: Riff will need the right conditions to shove as well as Rex or Snips, but if you focus on wounding he will perform better

Wrap-Up

Alrighty, that’s it for today! Even with the character-specific assumptions I tried to pick popular characters, so hopefully the insights are useful. As a reminder, I plan to do a mailbag article in the near future. If you have a question you want answered, maybe or maybe not like how I answered my own questions here today, write in to zeusjus@thefifthtrooper.com.

Have a good one!