INTRODUCTION
Here we are in May (happy Star Wars Day to all) with a new set of rules and some points adjustments. This period is interesting because we will get the new Mandalorian units and battleforces/armies in just a month or so, and with it another rules update. As I have no inside knowledge about the contents of that rules update, I don’t know if we are going to have a quick period like we had last year or if the rules update will be restricted to just the release of Mandalorians, which may lead to extending the results out until another major rules refresh. As many of the same observations from previous articles still hold true, I have italicized reused statements for readers who want to skim the article more quickly.
For new readers, here is a brief explanation of how the graphs are compiled. The data is collected from Longshanks after filtering for rated, singles tournaments. The data is further refined by removing mirror matches, which otherwise draw results towards a 50%-win rate.
WIN RATES
OVERALL WIN RATES
Starting off, I am going to review the current overall win rates for each faction (Figure 1). This is our first major shakeup in the pecking order against the four major factions, but the truism that more activations leads to more wins continues to hold true. It is also important to note for more casual players that the average activation count has increased by a couple of units, with sniper squads offering cheap and effective ways to increase unit counts. Rebels and CIS hold early win rates of 56% and 55%, respectively. Empire, with the addition of Imperial High Command, has crept up slightly to 47%. GAR has continued to slide in win rates, going down to 43%. On the last point, there has been a lot of discussion about how the recent additions of snipers, rules changes to guardian, and an increase in the most effective unit in the army may have adversely affected the faction, so I won’t belabor the point further. I will point out however, that it is not all doom and gloom for them, as a player won a recent two-day event with a Republic army, which we will cover later.
Figure 1: Faction win rates since the Star Wars: Legion 2.6 update
FACTION WIN RATES
With Longshanks, I can investigate how each faction performs versus the other factions and look at which objectives they perform best on. These results are summarized in Tables 1 and 2 below.
Setting aside mercenary win rates due to their low volume of data, we see in our first look at the new data that Rebels hold an advantage over the other factions, with a small advantage over CIS, and a significant advantage over both the Empire and GAR factions. CIS also shows a significant advantage over both the Empire and GAR. Empire sits just at the edge of the generally accepted balance threshold (+/-5%) over GAR.
I have included the objective data, but will caveat that the number of games per faction and mission type are low for all of the factions. Given the preliminary nature of the results, I am including them primarily for interest purposes, but will refrain from overly analyzing it at this time. I will revisit it when we get closer to the end of the reporting period.
Table 1. Faction head-to-head win rates
Table 2. Objective performance for each faction. Each row is heat mapped by color to show best and worst performance.
LOCAL AND LARGE EVENT PERFORMANCE
FACTION POPULARITY
Before I look at the remaining data, the relative popularity of each faction needs to be understood to contextualize their performance (Figure 2). Specifically, I use this information to compare how often a faction is performing at top tables versus the expected outcome if the game is perfectly balanced. Given the complexity of Legion, perfect balance is not possible, but this provides directional feedback on game balance.
Looking at the data, we see fairly even popularity among the four factions, with Empire slightly ahead of the others. This popularity is possibly a result of players returning to the faction with the release of the Imperial High Command character pack. GAR, which was anecdotally the most popular starter faction, is the next most popular faction. Rebels and CIS are tied for third in popularity. There is also a slight increase in mercenary popularity with the release of the Ohnaka Gang battleforce and some updates for Shadow Collective. The popularity of the new Maul series may also be contributing to the slight increase.
Figure 2. Faction popularity since the Star Wars: Legion 2.6 update
CURRRENT PERFORMANCE AT LOCALS
Now that we know how popular each faction is, how the factions are performing at events can be understood. The first graph shows the percentage of X-0 or X-1 finishes for each faction as a portion of all such finishes, with each result requiring at least three wins. These results reflect qualifying events since the recent update (Figure 3). This gives us a view into the game that most competitive players experience regularly, which is local three-game, one-day events. What we can see is that both Rebels and CIS are significantly overperforming expectations (+8% and +6% above expected values, respectively), while Mercenaries are -3%, GAR is -5%, and the Empire is -7%, of the expected values.
Figure 3. Faction popularity (x-axis) vs each faction’s percentage of all winners/top finishers
MULTIDAY EVENT PERFORMANCE
Shifting from the current competitive scene, we are next going to look at the top tables at multiday events (Figure 4). Thus far, one event was won by a GAR player and one by Rebel. Not included in the data set or these results are the recent World Team Championships (WTC). However, I will cover them at the end of the article.
Figure 4. 5-0 or better finishes for each faction separated by update periods
Based on some recent reader feedback, I am including two graphs to examine how the factions have done at winning larger events. One graph (Figure 5A) shows results since the start of 2.6, while the second (Figure 5B) looks at only the results in the current and past two periods to give us a snapshot of the past 12-18 months’ worth of results.
Looking at these results, we see a much more exaggerated version of the current meta, with CIS and Rebels outperforming their popularity, while GAR and Empire continue to underperform.
Figure 5. A) Faction popularity (x-axis) vs each faction’s percentage of all 5-0 or better finishes. B) Faction popularity (x-axis) vs each faction’s percentage of 5-0 or better finishes in the current and past 2 periods
NO ONE IS EVER REALLY GONE
The most recent rules changes introduced some new units (snipers), as well as changes to AI and Guardian. Three units that the community has mentioned being potentially impacted by these changes were Yoda due to being vulnerable to snipers with his low health pool, Obi-Wan, whose ability to guardian was limited with the rules change, and Aqua Droids. To help collect data to determine if these concerns have impacted these units, I have created the Blue Milk Carton Index to find out if we should send out search parties for these units (Figure 6). The index looks at how often each unit was taken before and after the rules changes, assuming an average of 3 games per list, and that certain units were taken in multiples where sensible. In this case, I am assuming Aqua Droids are typically taken in pairs. The initial results suggest that usage of both Obi-Wan and Aqua Droids has gone down, while Yoda continues to see play in Republic lists. It is important to emphasize that this graph is not a reflection on the quality of these units, only an indication of community sentiment.
Figure 6. A) Faction popularity (x-axis) vs each faction’s percentage of all 5-0 or better finishes. B) Faction popularity (x-axis) vs each faction’s percentage of 5-0 or better finishes in the current and past 2 periods
RECENT EVENT WINNERS
As we do in this article series, I wanted to highlight lists that finished 5-0. There were a four Rebel lists that finished 5-0 just before the rules update that I will not cover, but wanted to acknowledge that those players did well at the end of last period. For this month, there are two lists I wanted to highlight.
First, ElBragor in France went 5-0 with a list featuring Obi-Wan, Yoda, Padme, 2 Marksmen and Infantry squads with heavy weapons, 3 ATRTs, and an ISP. It was certainly an unusual list, and I do not know if it represents a meta solution for the faction or just a solution for the local environment where the tournament was held. It is also important to note this list was 10 pts over given the recent changes to saber throw, and this event likely represents more of the previous meta based on the timing for list submission.
Second, Dustin Grorud won the Rocky Mountain Open with what could be best described as “Rebel good stuff”. It featured both Han and Luke on Tauntauns, Mando, Cassian Super fleets, two naked Troopers, two units of Sleeper Cells, Commandos with a Sniper Team, an Ion X-34 (without the astromech), and a bus.
WORLD TEAM CHAMPIONSHIPS
Finishing off what is certainly the longest article to date (thanks for reading to this point), I am going to review the recent WTC results. The event is different from standard legion tournaments in that team captains can try to arrange what they perceive as favorable matchups. First, let’s look at the participation, then the results.
As the event forced each team to register 5 lists (one for each faction plus a mercenary list) it was to be expected that the factions would have fairly even representation. As expected, this is what we see, with fewer people choosing to use mercenaries than the major 4 factions. It is worth noting that the new pirates were not eligible for this event. I expect Mandalorian armies will alter this dynamic next year.
It is important to look at the skill level of the participants at an event like this. While Longshanks rating system is somewhat arcane and difficult to understand, we can gain some insights from it. In this data, the skill level information shows us that many of the participants are in the upper brackets of competitive play and thus more familiar with the game than average players, who would be in the 400-500 range.
Shifting to the results, we see a set of results that show a tighter distribution among three of the factions, with Rebels being an outlier. This difference from the broader community results is likely a combination of both the format and the general skill level of the players participating. These players have more experience dealing with meta units and thus strategies to mitigate them that other players may not have learned.
Finally, let us look at the lists that managed to go undefeated throughout the tournament. First, we have the former world champ Isaiah with a GAR list that included Yoda, a LAAT, and the new Wookie unit with the Chewbacca upgrade. This list leans into giving the Wookiees surge tokens to take advantage of the Chewbacca upgrade to get into melee. Padme with the strike team leader upgrade further provides punch to that unit with top-of-turn tokens and surge tokens when she activates.
Next, we have Jakob Hager with what can best be described as a Rebel swarm, pushing up to 18 activations with the Han Solo on a Tauntaun 1-pip command card. This list also included IG-11 and was reportedly used to pair into GAR, where the activation count and pierce in the list would give it a distinct advantage.
Next, we have ElBragor again, this time with a Republic list at 14 activations. Notably this list included 2 sniper teams and 3 of the standard flutter craft with the gunner and strike and fade. It also included 4 corps units with mortars, allowing it to have 6 units that could shoot at ranges 4 and 5 for laying down early game suppression.
The final undefeated list was another Rebel player, Jocke, who brought Han and Luke on Tauntauns with Chewbacca, along with a Ryder Azadi driven bus and a sleeper cell unit. Chewbacca included the strike team leader upgrade, presumably to get the sleeper cell more aims or top-of-turn dodges depending on the game state.
